Spatial planning: Spatial pattern deviations and recommendations for spatial planning regulation settlement zone (2010–2030) based on current conditions

Abstract

Background: Kota Batu, located in East Java Province, has experienced rapid urban growth, which poses challenges in spatial planning, particularly in balancing development with environmental sustainability. Night Time Light (NTL) analysis is often used to measure human activity intensity through nighttime illumination, providing valuable insights for urban development studies. Methods: The research employed spatial analysis using NTL data to assess human activity intensity and land use patterns, combined with land cover mapping to identify paddy field distribution. A disaster risk analysis was conducted to map flash flood-prone areas, and agglomeration analysis was applied to determine settlement zone recommendations. The total deviation in spatial patterns was calculated to quantify the extent of inconsistency with the Spatial Planning Regulation/Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW). Findings: The results revealed a spatial pattern deviation of 2,160.84 hectares, representing 11.58% of Kota Batu’s total area. Based on agglomeration analysis, 18 villages/urban wards were identified as recommended settlement zones. Meanwhile, 21 villages/urban wards were categorized as priority areas due to high flash flood risk. These findings highlight the tension between potential residential expansion and disaster risk management in urban planning. Conclusion: Spatial planning in Kota Batu requires an integrated approach that addresses urban growth while preserving agricultural land and mitigating disaster risks. The findings provide evidence-based recommendations for refining the RTRW to enhance sustainable and disaster-resilient development. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study integrates NTL-based human activity mapping, agricultural land preservation analysis, and flash flood disaster risk assessment to produce a spatial planning recommendation for Kota Batu, a methodological combination that has been rarely applied in Indonesian mid-sized cities.