RFN–FWI research 2021: The impact of land cover and climate change on food sovereignty
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61511/pacc.v2i1.2025.2388Keywords:
food sovereignty, land-cover change, accessibility, small islands, gender rolesAbstract
Background: Small-island food systems are tightly coupled to forests, coastal waters, and customary tenure. In the Aru Islands (Maluku, Indonesia), rapid land-cover change and a warming, more variable climate may erode sago-based subsistence and marine protein supplies, undermining food sovereignty. Methods: This study integrates geospatial and social approaches: one-class SVM mapped sago (10-m) from multispectral, radar, terrain, and rainfall predictors, ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt) estimated seasonal fishing grounds from oceanographic drivers, an accessibility (travel-time) model quantified community access to sago, land cover was classified (Random Forest) and projected to 2050 with the PLUS model, statistically downscaled CMIP6 GCMs (SSP2/SSP5) provided 2050 climate anomalies, and a Rapid Rural Appraisal in Desa Lorang documented food practices and gendered roles. Findings: Current sago covers ~14,344.82 ha, concentrated in Aru Selatan Timur, Aru Selatan, and Aru Tengah; access ranges from ~15 minutes to ~9 hours, yielding 95 surplus and 7 deficit villages for sago. Fishing potential peaks May–October; models achieved AUC ≈0.82. Since 2015, agriculture has contracted and forest loss/degradation accelerated; business-as-usual projections indicate natural forest may fall to ~31% of Aru by 2050, with built-up land expanding and sago shrinking to ~3,025 ha. Climate projections show +0.7–1.4 °C warming and slight mean rainfall decline (≈−85 mm yr⁻¹), especially in western Aru. Conclusion: Forest conservation, tenure recognition, education/health access, and policies valuing sago and diversified local foods are essential to safeguard Aru’s food sovereignty under climate and land-use pressures. Novelty/Originality of this article: Provides the first island-scale, integrative quantification linking machine-learning sago mapping, seasonal fisheries, accessibility, land-cover trajectories, climate risk, and gendered social dynamics to food sovereignty in a small-island context.
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