Strategi ketahanan ekonomi pada masa pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61511/ersud.v1i2.2024.1147Keywords:
Covid-19, ketahanan ekonomi, fiscal, moneter, lock downAbstract
Latar Belakang: Pandemi COVID-19 telah menimbulkan berbagai permasalahan dan dampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia, yang mengakibatkan penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang signifikan pada tahun 2020. Hal ini berdampak terhadap peningkatan kerentanan ekonomi yang mengancam ketahanan ekonomi. Penelitian ini meneliti pengaruh penerimaan pajak, suku bunga, harga minyak mentah, harga emas, Indeks Dow Jones, COVID-19, nilai tukar, dan IHSG terhadap ketahanan ekonomi. Selain itu, penelitian ini merumuskan strategi mitigasi kerentanan ekonomi di Indonesia akibat pandemi COVID-19, apakah strategi lockdown tepat untuk diterapkan atau sebaliknya. Metode: Penelitian ini menggunakan metode regresi logistik dengan data variabel harian dari Maret-Desember 2020. Temuan: Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penerimaan pajak di masa pandemi COVID-19, suku bunga di masa pandemi COVID-19, harga minyak mentah, Indeks Dow Jones, dan IHSG berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ketahanan ekonomi. Pada saat tidak dilakukan intervensi kebijakan, ketahanan ekonomi pada kondisi ideal lebih tinggi dibandingkan pada kondisi normal dan kondisi sulit. Strategi kebijakan untuk memitigasi kerentanan ekonomi pada masa pandemi COVID-19 adalah menjaga penerimaan pajak tidak turun serta menurunkan suku bunga dan kasus COVID-19 secara simultan sehingga kebijakan full lockdown tidak tepat digunakan. Kesimpulan: Implikasi kebijakan untuk menjaga penerimaan pajak tidak turun dapat dijalankan melalui: penetapan prioritas perpajakan, perluasan basis perpajakan, peningkatan kepatuhan dan pengawasan, optimalisasi implementasi peraturan perpajakan, dan insentif pajak. Implikasi kebijakan untuk menurunkan suku bunga adalah mendorong Bank Indonesia agar menurunkan suku bunga IndONIA di pasar uang antar bank. Implikasi kebijakan untuk menurunkan kasus COVID-19 dapat dijalankan melalui: ketegasan dan konsistensi pembatasan sosial, peningkatan kegiatan pemeriksaan, pelacakan, dan perawatan, peningkatan sosialisasi dan penegakan hukum, serta percepatan vaksinasi.
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