Fiscal strategies amid global uncertainty: Strengthening indonesia’s economic and investment resilience through a national supply chain resilience roadmap
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61511/emagrap.v3i1.2025.2151Keywords:
fiscal strategy, global disruption, national supply chain resilience roadmapAbstract
Background: When global conditions are unstable, policy-making driven by urgency and efficiency is necessary to maintain national stability, particularly in Indonesia. In the context of a trade war, the key threats to address are declining investment and weakening economic activity. One of the instruments that can be utilized is fiscal policy. Nevertheless, fiscal resources are limited. Hence, the main questions to be answered in this article are: (1) What’s the most significant sector that affects economic growth and investment performance? (2) What’s the strategy and solution that can be implemented to achieve the fiscal efficiency point? Methods: To answer the first main question, use a literature review. All literature used in this article is from the Scopus index database. On the other hand, the authors also apply the adaptation of the National Supply Chain Resilience Roadmap (NSCRR) method while combining it with a literature review to formulate a fiscal policy strategy that ensures efficient implementation. Findings: Supported by existing literature, the authors identifies infrastructure as the sector with the highest significance in boosting economic growth and investment in Indonesia. Additionally, authors propose three complementary technical strategies to ensure the efficient implementation of fiscal policy. These three strategies include the Fiscal Deficit Reduction and Accountability Reform System (FIDARS), the National Integrated Smart Government System (NISGS), National Infrastructure Technology Transfer Scheme (NITTS) Conclusion: To attract FDI, investment in public goods such as infrastructure is empirically proven to have a more massive impact and is more efficient due to the vast fiscal multiplier that is greater than in other sectors. Yet, the fiscal allocation needs to be implemented strategically and efficiently by using the three strategies mentioned above. Novelty/Originality of this article: The new adaptation of NSCRR to create fiscal strategies has not been written before.
References
Abe, T. (2011). Fiscal responsibility, accountability and democratic consolidation in Nigeria: The case of Ekiti State. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences.
Ackert, L. F., Church, B. K., & Schneider, A. (2008). Provision of non-audit services and individuals’ investment decisions: Experimental evidence. Research in Accounting Regulation, 20, 177–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1052-0457(07)00209-3
Apleni, A., & Smuts, H. (2020, April). An e-government implementation framework: A developing country case study. In Conference on e-Business, e-Services and e-Society (pp. 15-27). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45002-1_2
Auray, S., & Eyquem, A. (2017). On the Role of Debt Maturity in a Model with Sovereign Risk and Financial Frictions. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(5), 2114–2131. https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051700061x
Avcı, M. E. H. M. E. T., & Karasoy, H. A. (2021). How Does Fiscal Decentralization Affect Fiscal and Governance-Related Performance?: Evidence From OECD Countries by Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. In Handbook of research on global challenges for improving public services and government operations (pp. 409-426). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-4978-0.ch021
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., & Mulas-Granados, C. (2012). Reassessing the fiscal mix for successful debt reduction. Economic Policy, 27(71), 365–406. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00287.x
Berggren, N., & Bjørnskov, C. (2020). Corruption, judicial accountability and inequality: Unfair procedures may benefit the worst-off. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 170, 341–354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.12.010
Bernat, M., Łukaniszyn-Domaszewska, K., Romaniuk, U., & Szewczyk, M. (2025). The role of FDI in building integrated resilience of regional development during economic crises. Economics and Environment, 91(4), 987. https://doi.org/10.34659/eis.2024.91.4.987
Brzozowski, J., & Daniele Coniglio, N. (2016). Migration and development at home: Bitter or sweet return? Evidence from Poland. European Urban and Regional Studies, SERIES Working Papers n. 08/2016. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2871160
Campbell, J. W. (2023). Public participation and trust in government: Results from a vignette experiment. Journal of Policy Studies, 38(2), 23–31. https://doi.org/10.52372/jps38203
Chan, S. G., Har, W. M., Kanapathy, K., Celik, S., & Aktan, B. (2024). Country-of-origin effects on technology transfer in foreign direct investment. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 33(7), 1345-1370. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2023.2262615
Chen, T., Qi, Y., & Du, L. (2024). Transportation network density, domestic market integration and excess sensitivity of household consumption. China Finance and Economic Review, 13(3), 24–43. https://doi.org/10.1515/cfer-2024-0014
Danaee Fard, H., & Anvary Rostamy, A. A. (2007). Promoting public trust in public organizations: Explaining the role of public accountability. Public Organization Review, 7(4), 331–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11115-007-0041-4
Deleidi, M., Iafrate, F., & Levrero, E. S. (2020). Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 354–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.12.004
Economic Policy uncertainty index. (n.d.). https://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal policy under uncertainty. (2025). International Monetary Fund (IMF). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-April-2025
Gai, A. M., Endarwati, M. C., & A. R. T. O. Lamapaha. (2019). The study of Larantuka urban infrastructure service level to accommodate the connectivity of surrounding islands. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 340(1), 012006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/340/1/012006
Gnimassoun, B., & Santos, I. D. (2020). Robust structural determinants of public deficits in developing countries. Applied Economics, 53(9), 1052–1076. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1824063
Golan, M. S., Jernegan, L. H., & Linkov, I. (2020). Trends and applications of resilience analytics in supply chain modeling: Systematic literature review in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Environment Systems and Decisions, 40(2), 222–243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-020-09777-w
Guasch, J. L. (2022). Motivation for Analysis and Evaluation of Logistic Costs. In Interventions to Reduce Logistic Costs for Trade Competitiveness and Poverty: A Productive Transformation Platform (pp. 1-6). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94968-6_1
IMF. (2025). Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-April-2025
Indonesia Corruption Watch. (2022). Laporan tahunan 2022: Potret pemberantasan korupsi di Indonesia. Indonesia Corruption Watch. https://antikorupsi.org/id/laporan-akhir-tahun-icw-2022
Joint Economic Committee Republicans. (2024). Report of the Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States on the 2024 Economic Report of the President. https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/vendor/_accounts/JECR/2024RepublicanResponse.pdf
Jung, H. (2022). Online Open Budget: The effects of budget transparency on budget efficiency. Public Finance Review, 50(1), 91–119. https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421221093412
Kalu, U. C., & Ugbor, U. J. K. (2022). Governance and economic development in Abia State, Nigeria, 2007–2018. African Renaissance, 19(2), 73–92. https://doi.org/10.31920/2516-5305/2022/19n2a4
Kaur, M., Khatua, A., & Yadav, S. S. (2016). Infrastructure Development and FDI Inflow to Developing Economies: Evidence from India. Thunderbird International Business Review, 58(6), 555–563. https://doi.org/10.1002/tie.21784
Kebalo, L., & Zouri, S. (2024). Income inequality in developing countries: fiscal policy’s role amid uncertainty. Journal of Applied Economics, 27(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2024.2316969
Kemenkeu. (2024). Siaran Pers APBN 2025. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/informasi-publik/publikasi/siaran-pers/Siaran-Pers-APBN-2025
Kemenkeu. (2025). Informasi Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2025. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. https://djpb.kemenkeu.go.id/kppn/penerimaan/id/datapublikasi/pengumuman/2901-informasi-apbn-2025.html
Ketners, K., Jarockis, A., & Petersone, M. (2024). State budget system improvement for informed decision-making in Latvia. Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University Series “Economics,” 11(3), 86–99. https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ3.2024.86
Khadaroo, A. J., & Seetanah, B. (2008). Transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment. Journal of International Development, 22(1), 103–123. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1506
Leshoro, T. L. A. (2021). Fiscal deficit-economic growth nexus in South Africa: a threshold analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 13(2), 388-409. https://doi.org/10.34109/ijefs.20212018
Lipsey, R. E., & Sjöholm, F. (2011). Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: Lessons for Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 47(1), 35–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2011.556055
Luu, H. N., Nguyen, L. Q. T., & Nguyen, L. T. M. (2024). The impact of foreign direct investment on infrastructure development. Journal of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2023-0688
Mao, H., & Görg, H. (2020). Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains. The World Economy, 43(7), 1776–1791. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12967
McLaughlin, J. A., & Jordan, G. B. (1998). Logic models: a tool for telling your programs performance story. Evaluation and Program Planning, 22(1), 65–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0149-7189(98)00042-1
Miningou, É. W., & Tapsoba, S. J. (2020). Education systems and foreign direct investment: Does external efficiency matter? Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 583–599. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1797337
Nidhiprabha, B. (2019). Impacts of the U.S.–China trade war on ASEAN: Case of Thailand. Asian Economic Papers, 18(3), 166–188. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00737
Ódor Ľ, Kiss GP. (2017). Lost in Complexity: Towards a Decentralised and Depoliticised Fiscal Framework in Europe. In: Ódor Ľ, ed. Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis. Cambridge University Press https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316675861.007
OECD. (2025). Global Debt Report 2025. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/global-debt-report-2025_8ee42b13-en.html
Oktay, F., & Özer, V. (2011). Technology Transfer Through Joint Ventures in the Aviation MRO Industry: The Case of Turkish Technic. In Designing Public Procurement Policy in Developing Countries: How to Foster Technology Transfer and Industrialization in the Global Economy (pp. 235-252). New York, NY: Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1442-1_12
Olivares-Aguila, J., & Vital-Soto, A. (2021). Supply Chain Resilience Roadmaps for Major Disruptions. Logistics, 5(4), 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/logistics5040078
Oskooee, M. B., & Economidou, C. (2006). Do budget deficits crowd in or crowd out private investment: evidence from Europe. International Journal of Public Policy, 1(3), 223. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijpp.2006.009799
Prakoso, M. R., Berawi, M. A., & Gunawan. (2021, July). Evaluation of Logistics System Performance-Based on Indonesian Government Policy. In International Conference on Rehabilitation and Maintenance in Civil Engineering (pp. 791-797). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-9348-9_70
Priyadi, U., Susantun, I., & Shidiqie, J. S. A. (2024). The impact of policy quality and political stability on foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries: An institutional economics analysis. Journal of Ecohumanism, 3(6), 1561–1572. https://doi.org/10.62754/joe.v3i6.4104
Saeed, L. (2025). The impact of military expenditures on economic growth: A new instrumental variables approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 36(1), 86-101. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2023.2259651
Saidi, S., Mani, V., Mefteh, H., Shahbaz, M., & Akhtar, P. (2020). Dynamic linkages between transport, logistics, foreign direct Investment, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from developing countries. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 141, 277-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.09.020
Saleh, A. S., & Harvie, C. (2005). The budget deficit and economic performance: a SURVEY. The Singapore Economic Review, 50(02), 211–243. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590805001986
Saraswati, Z. F., Pramudhita, N., Pradono, N., Wijayanti, G. M., & Sefianiz, D. (2021). Transportation infrastructure relations on economic growth in Sumatra Island. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 830(1), 012099. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/830/1/012099
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Long Range Planning, 28(3), 117–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(95)91604-0
Scott, S. J., Denne, L. D., & Hastings, R. P. (2018). Developing a logic model to guide evaluation of impact for learning disability projects: the case of the Positive Behavioural Support (PBS) Academy. Tizard Learning Disability Review, 23(3), 125–132. https://doi.org/10.1108/tldr-10-2017-0038
Shamsi, A. F., Bashir, R., & Panhwar, I. A. (2013). Corporate governance in Pakistan: An empirical study. Transnational Corporations Review, 5(3), 46–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2013.11658363
Sheel, A. (2013). Macroeconomic policies for India’s growth crisis. Economic and Political Weekly, 48(19), 12–15. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23527333
Shen, J., Lu, T., Guan, T., Li, X., Wang, Q., Shen, J., ... & Wang, Q. (2023, January). China Economy and Policy Outlook. In Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum: Turbulent 2022 (pp. 49-77). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8489-1_4
Sibhoan, & Vanessa, C. (2016). Federal deficits and debt: Impacts and issues. Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
Sodik, J., Sarungu, J., Soesilo, A., & Tri Rahayu, S. A. (2019). The determinant of foreign direct investment across provinces in Indonesia: The role of market size, resources, and competitiveness. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 53(3). https://doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2019-5303-11
Suroso, J. T., Durahman, D., & Budi, I. (2024). The simplification of licensing procedure in job creation law: The effectiveness to attract foreign investor. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2024.2414509
Suryanta, B., & Patunru, A. A. (2023). Determinants of foreign direct investment in Indonesia. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 15(1), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101211067856
Svedin, L. (2012). Accountability in crises and public trust in governing institutions. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203120149
Thomas, C., & Chermack, T. (2018). Using scenario planning to supplement supply chain risk assessments. In Revisiting supply chain risk (pp. 37-51). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-03813-7_3
Tsaurai, K. (2025). Impact of infrastructure development on foreign direct investment in BRICS countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(3), 152. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18030152
UNCTAD. (2021). World investment report 2021: Investing in sustainable recovery. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2021_en.pdf
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard business review, 63(6), 139-150. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315253336-16
Waroonkun, T., & Stewart, R. A. (2008). Pathways to enhanced value creation from the international technology transfer process in Thai construction projects. Construction Innovation, 8(4), 299–317. https://doi.org/10.1108/14714170810912671
Webber, D. (2004). Managing the public’s money: From outputs to outcomes–and beyond. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 4(2), 101-121. https://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/43488736.pdf
Wie, T. K. (2005). The major channels of international technology transfer to Indonesia: An assessment. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 10(2), 214–236. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860500071493
World Bank Group. (2021). Indonesia Public Expenditure Review: Spending for Better Results. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/indonesia-public-expenditure-review
Yong, S.-W., Suhaimi, R., & Chai, S.-Y. (2017). The effect of public debt on FDI-growth nexus: Threshold regression analysis. Advanced Science Letters, 23(8), 7342–7345. https://doi.org/10.1166/asl.2017.9470
Zheng, B., & Xiao, J. (2020). Corruption and investment: Theory and evidence from China. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 175, 40–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.03.018
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Citation Check
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Mesakh Roi Pratama Ginsu, Laura Amaria Dwiputri Julianti, Fachry Haris

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.