Systemic risk of tender failures in government projects: An FMEA-based analysis of price deviation impacts on infrastructure preparedness

Authors

  • Mirnayani Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mercu Buana University, West Jakarta, 11650, Indonesia
  • Elvando Genta Tyasa Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mercu Buana University, West Jakarta, 11650, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61511/calamity.v3i1.2025.2105

Keywords:

cost estimation, disaster-resilient infrastructure, FMEA, price deviation, tender documents, tender failure

Abstract

Background: Infrastructure preparedness during disasters depends greatly on the successful and timely execution of government construction projects, particularly multi-story buildings that function as critical public facilities. However, in practice, many of these projects experience tender failures due to significant price deviations from the Owner’s Estimate (HPS), either through underpricing or overpricing. These failures often result in delays or cancellations, disrupting the availability of essential infrastructure in emergency scenarios. Methods: This study applies the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method to systematically identify, assess, and prioritize the underlying causes of tender failure in a government-funded multi-story building project. Data collection involved document analysis, expert validation, and structured questionnaires focusing on three key parameters: severity, occurrence, and detection of each failure mode. Findings: The results reveal two major categories of failure factors: issues related to documentation and problems in cost estimation. Documentation issues include unclear specifications and lack of expert personnel due to limited preparation time, while cost estimation problems involve insufficient market analysis, unrealistic pricing, and scheduling errors. The highest Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) were found in the indicators “failure in offering strategy” (RPN = 22.944), “failure in prequalification” (RPN = 22.874), and “lack of expert personnel due to limited time availability” (RPN = 22.032), all of which are considered critical and indicative of systemic vulnerability in the tendering process. These critical failures highlight the potential risk they pose to infrastructure readiness, especially in disaster-prone contexts. Conclusion: Tender failures caused by price deviation pose a systemic risk to infrastructure preparedness. Reforming public procurement systems with improved risk identification and mitigation strategies—especially in document and cost estimation processes—is essential for supporting disaster-resilient infrastructure development. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study is one of the first to link FMEA-based tender risk assessment with disaster preparedness outcomes, offering a novel contribution to both construction management and resilience planning.

References

Adistana, G. A. Y. P., HS, M. S., Mahardi, P., & Sofianto, M. F. (2022). Assessment of E-Procurement Subjects’ Missteps for Construction and Consultancy Services Throughout the Surabaya City Area as an Educational Adjunct for Project Tender Courses. Jurnal Pensil, 11(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v11i1.25294

Amelia, A. (2023). Studi Persepsional Risiko Kecacatan Konstruksi Pada Bangunan Gedung Menggunakan Metode Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (FMEA). Civil Engineering Collaboration, 27–33. https://doi.org/10.35134/jcivil.v8i2.63

Bargues, J. L. F., Gisbert, P. F., & González-Cruz, M. C. (2018). Analysis of Green Public Procurement of Works by Spanish Public Universities. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(9), 1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15091888

Budianto, D. V., Rarasati, A. D., & Nursin, A. (2021a). Strategy for Increasing Tender Success in Jakarta’s E-Tender Construction Project. Iop Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering, 1098(2), 022052. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/1098/2/022052

Budianto, D. V., Rarasati, A. D., & Nursin, A. (2021b). Strategy for Increasing Tender Success in Jakarta’s E-Tender Construction Project. Iop Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering, 1098(2), 022052. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/1098/2/022052

Ellis, J., Edwards, D. J., Thwala, W. D., Ejohwomu, O., Ameyaw, E. E., & Shelbourn, M. (2021). A Case Study of a Negotiated Tender Within a Small-to-Medium Construction Contractor: Modelling Project Cost Variance. Buildings, 11(6), 260. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11060260

Fan, C., Zhu, Y., Li, W., & Zhang, H. (2020). Consensus Building in Linguistic Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: A Perspective Based on Prospect Theory. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 36(7), 2521–2546. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2714

Hochstetter, J., García, M., & Cares, C. (2019). Socio-Technical Factors in Electronic Software Biddings. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research, 14(3), 34–60. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-18762019000300104

Kamil, A. `Izz M., Mokhtar, B., Saidin, M. T., Ejau, R. L., Zaki, Z. A., & Hassan, A. A. (2022). Challenges in Conducting Strategic Decisions in Tendering Among Contractors in Malaysia. Iop Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, 1067(1), 012044. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1067/1/012044

Kusumarukmi, E. I., & Adi, T. J. W. (2019). Public Tendering Process for Construction Projects: Problem Identifications, Analysis, and Proposed Solutions. Matec Web of Conferences, 258, 02013. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201925802013

Misanova, I., Tarasov, D., Safronova, A., Astafiev, A. V, & Świekatowsky, R. (2020). Risk Management in the Organization of Delivery of Construction Materials. Matec Web of Conferences, 329, 03060. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202032903060

Negi, A. (2021). Risk Assessment and Management in Construction Projects. Mathematical Statistician and Engineering Applications, 70(1), 668–675. https://doi.org/10.17762/msea.v70i1.2522

Palinkas, L. A., Springgate, B., Sugarman, O. K., Hancock, J., Wennerstrom, A., Haywood, C., Meyers, D., Johnson, A. J., Polk, M., Pesson, C. L., Seay, J. E., Stallard, C. N., & Wells, K. B. (2021). A Rapid Assessment of Disaster Preparedness Needs and Resources During the COVID-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(2), 425. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020425

Patrisina, R., Emetia, F., Sirivongpaisal, N., Suthummanon, S., Alfadhlani, A., & Fatrias, D. (2018). Key Performance Indicators of Disaster Preparedness: A Case Study of a Tsunami Disaster. Matec Web of Conferences, 229, 01010. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201822901010

Rajesh, & Keshav, V. (2022a). Risk Assessment in Building Construction Projects. Iop Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/1255/1/012013

Rajesh, & Keshav, V. (2022b). Risk Assessment in Building Construction Projects. Iop Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering, 1255(1), 012013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/1255/1/012013

Saifudin, I. M. Moh. Y. (2023). Disaster Health Literacy, Risk Perception, and Preparedness towards Resilience in a Volcano-Prone Community: A Cross-sectional Study in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Journal of Community Empowerment for Health, 6(3), 154. https://doi.org/10.22146/jcoemph.86343

Selim, H., Yunusoglu, M. G., & Balaman, Ş. Y. (2015). A Dynamic Maintenance Planning Framework Based on Fuzzy TOPSIS and FMEA: Application in an International Food Company. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 32(3), 795–804. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1791

Simeone, D. (2021). CON-TEND: An Ontology for Knowledge Reuse in Construction Tendering. 2, 115–122. https://doi.org/10.35490/ec3.2021.190

Sugiyanto, & Darmawan. (2023). The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Tender for Construction Companies in Indonesi. Quality - Access to Success, 24(192). https://doi.org/10.47750/QAS/24.192.06

Velasquez, D., Carhuamaca, S., & Farje, J. (2021). Risks management model integrating the Analysis mode and failure effects within the Last Planner System to improve the time of real estate construction projects. Congreso Internacional de Innovación y Tendencias En Ingeniería (CONIITI), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/CONIITI53815.2021.9619752

Wimalasena, N. N., & Gunatilake, S. (2018). The Readiness of Construction Contractors and Consultants to Adopt E-Tendering. Construction Innovation, 18(3), 350–370. https://doi.org/10.1108/ci-03-2017-0025

Wu, X., & Wu, J. (2021). The Risk Priority Number Evaluation of FMEA Analysis Based on Random Uncertainty and Fuzzy Uncertainty. Complexity, 2021(1). https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8817667

Xia, N., Wang, X., Wang, Y., Yang, Q., & Liu, X. (2017). Lifecycle Cost Risk Analysis for Infrastructure Projects With Modified Bayesian Networks. Journal of Engineering Design and Technology, 15(1), 79–103. https://doi.org/10.1108/jedt-05-2015-0033

Zhou, T., Gao, X., & Wei, G. (2021). Construction Method of Tender Document Based on Case-Based Reasoning. International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.15837/ijccc.2021.3.4170

Zhou, X., & Tang, Y. (2018). Modeling and Fusing the Uncertainty of FMEA Experts Using an Entropy-Like Measure With an Application in Fault Evaluation of Aircraft Turbine Rotor Blades. Entropy, 20(11), 864. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20110864

Zhu, J.-H., Shuai, B., Wang, R., & Chin, K. (2019). Risk Assessment for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using the Bonferroni Mean and TODIM Method. Mathematics, 7(6), 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/math7060536

Published

2025-07-31

How to Cite

Mirnayani, & Tyasa, E. G. (2025). Systemic risk of tender failures in government projects: An FMEA-based analysis of price deviation impacts on infrastructure preparedness. Calamity: A Journal of Disaster Technology and Engineering, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.61511/calamity.v3i1.2025.2105

Issue

Section

Articles

Citation Check